The graph above shows the uptake of two of the most popular Apple gadgets - iPod, and their touchscreen ipod and iphone combined. As people start to look at the success of the iPad, we'll need to look at history. Looking at the graph above, for even the most outrageous, immediate, successes, it still took about 4Q's for these products (Apple iPhone+iTouch and Nintendo Wii) to take off.
A lot of this is due to costs, shipping, availability, initial adopter, etc. But we can see even for the Nintedo DA and the Sony PSP, the trend line is at about 4-5 Q's. The iPhone started out at about $499 when initially dropped on the market, and then dramatically reduced - I dont think this will happen with the iPad, but this change was significant.
The other very interesting portion to review is the iPod and Blackberry. These trendlines show very poor initial adoption rates, but then they blow up at about 3 years (12 Q's). It could be very likely that the iPad sees similar adoption rates - it is a new product where there is not a perceived right now.
Of course, back then, Apple did not have the reputation it has today, which allowed iPhone and iPod Touch to take off. And this is what I believe will happen - because of the reputation of Apple, the iPad wil' "stand on the shoulders of the iPhone" and have a very quick uptake, with a hockey stick uptake after about a year.
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